Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 281 · SAN → HNL
departs 5:26 PM PT · arrives 9:36 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 68%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 35%
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.