Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 291 · AUS → ONT
departs 3:11 PM CT · arrives 4:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 39%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at AUS that day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.