Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 291 · AUS → BWI
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 9:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 27%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.