Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14 Tomorrow
WN 3136 · MDW → AUS
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 22%
Thu 11/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.