Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 3136 · MDW → AUS
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Thu 11/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.