WN 4012 · MIA → HOU

departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4012 · MIA → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?