WN 4401 · OAK → LAS

departs 1:45 PM PT · arrives 3:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,429 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4401 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?