Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 4401 · OAK → LAS
departs 3:32 PM PT · arrives 5:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 39%
Thu 11/19 55%
Fri 11/20 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OAK that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.37 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.