Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 4406 · LAS → BUR
departs 2:45 PM PT · arrives 3:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 11/13 58%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 50%
Mon 11/16 39%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at LAS that day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.