Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Nov 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, November 14
WN 526 · PHX → SNA
departs 5:46 PM MT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 11/13 50%
Sat 11/14
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.