Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 526 · PHX → SNA
departs 7:01 PM MT · arrives 7:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 11/14 31%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,533 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.