WN 939 · BUR → SMF

departs 3:36 PM PT · arrives 5:07 PM PT

Your aircraft is N925WN (B737), coming in as WN 2512 from PHX: in the air, landing about 2:59 PM PT, 35 min before departure.

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +37 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
15%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BUR that day

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.04 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 939 · BUR → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?