AA 1445 · MIA → ORF

departs 9:43 PM ET · arrives 12:02 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1445 · MIA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?