AA 1837 · BTV → DCA

departs 4:11 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts +32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1837 · BTV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?