AA 2159 · DFW → SDF

departs 8:33 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±6 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.96 in

SDF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2159 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?