AA 2464 · CLT → SMF

departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 8:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±7 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,233 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2464 · CLT → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?