Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3025 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 3025 · MIA → LGA

departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 11:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±8 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3025 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?