AA 3030 · AUS → MIA

departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.01 in

MIA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3030 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?