Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 385 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

AA 385 · MIA → LIM

departs 3:48 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM -05

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 71h before departure

Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIM?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into LIM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 385 · MIA → LIM

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIM?