AA 850 · DFW → SAT

departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±5 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.64 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 850 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?