Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

DL 1861 · ATL → SJU

departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM AT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1861 · ATL → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?