Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
DL 1861 · ATL → SJU
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 11/16 14%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 26%
Fri 11/20 18%
Sat 11/21 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SJU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.