Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
DL 2109 · LGA → IAH
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 22%
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 24%
Fri 11/20 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.