Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
DL 2109 · LGA → IAH
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 24%
Fri 11/20 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.