DL 2186 · SEA → FAI

departs 9:41 PM PT · arrives 12:30 AM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 357 ft forecast at FAI that day

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precip0.41 in

FAI (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2186 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?