Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
DL 2186 · SEA → FAI
departs 9:41 PM PT · arrives 12:30 AM AKT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/16
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 32%
Sat 11/21 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at FAI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
FAI (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 3,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.