Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

DL 2809 · MSP → SFO

departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 8:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±15 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
25%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2809 · MSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?