Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
DL 2846 · MSP → EWR
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 72%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 14%
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.