Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 574 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

DL 574 · MSP → SMF

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 574 · MSP → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?