Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
DL 8859 · BUF → MSP
departs 12:56 PM ET · arrives 2:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Tue 11/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from BUF are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 6.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.