Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
OO 3046 · STS → SAN
departs 8:17 PM PT · arrives 10:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Thu 11/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at STS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
STS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.71 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.