Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
OO 3046 · STS → SAN
departs 8:16 PM PT · arrives 10:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
STS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.