UA 1546 · SMF → LAX

departs 7:17 PM PT · arrives 8:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ SMF usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.42 in

LAX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1546 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?