Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1546 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 1546 · SMF → LAX

departs 7:18 PM PT · arrives 8:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.32 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1546 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?