Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 344 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

UA 344 · ORD → DCA

departs 8:58 AM CT · arrives 12:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 344 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?