Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8212 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow

UA 8212 · SFO → MSY

departs 4:24 PM PT · arrives 10:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±6 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.40 in

MSY (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8212 · SFO → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?