Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1185 · MDW → MSP
departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 5:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 33%
Thu 11/19 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.