Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1199
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 1199 · MKE → DCA
departs 5:46 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 32%
Fri 11/20 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.