Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 15

WN 1286 · HNL → OGG

departs 8:06 AM HT · arrives 9:02 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1286 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?