Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1286 · HNL → OGG
departs 8:07 AM HT · arrives 9:03 AM HT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 11/14 3%
Sun 11/15 3%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 4%
Wed 11/18 5%
Thu 11/19 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
8am departures from HNL are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 8% of the time recently
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.