Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1414 · DAL → DCA
departs 7:58 PM CT · arrives 11:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Sat 11/14 42%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 36%
Thu 11/19 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.43 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.