Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1511 · DCA → DAL
departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 34%
Thu 11/19 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.