Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15 Tomorrow
WN 1524 · DCA → HOU
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 9:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17 32%
Wed 11/18 38%
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.