Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 156 · SAN → SMF
departs 6:04 PM PT · arrives 7:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 80%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 34%
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.