Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 156 · SAN → SMF
departs 6:04 PM PT · arrives 7:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.21 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.