Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1782 · RNO → LAS
departs 3:31 PM PT · arrives 4:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 31%
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.