Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1782 · RNO → LAS
departs 3:32 PM PT · arrives 4:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.