Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 1790 · SFO → LAS
departs 3:12 PM PT · arrives 4:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sat 11/14 47%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 44%
Thu 11/19 62%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
80%
Arrive 1h+ late
62%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
80%
Yes 80%
No 20%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
15%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
28%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.42 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.