Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1790 · SFO → LAS
departs 3:12 PM PT · arrives 4:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 78%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 63%
Fri 11/20 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±14 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.