Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 15
WN 2174 · HOU → STL
departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 2:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/15
Mon 11/16 17%
Tue 11/17 14%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.62 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.